Showing posts with label Wizard of Vegas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wizard of Vegas. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Casino Marketing and Countermeasures ...

Each casino can use from one to 4 types of dice in a week. The resin compound formula in the white pips varies from dice type even within a casino. Even with today's plastics, there are other ways to make near perfectly square dice unblanced. So do you really think a casino would just have 1 type of BlackJack in a casino ALL with the same house edge ??!! ..... then why would you even think that they would only offer 1 game of craps without varying the house edge among the tables .... all too often, you will have some kind of house edge variance between tables. (see http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/ )

It's called Casino Marketing 101 .... no different than a retail store having a different profit margin on most items in the store. We learn in marketing courses that the most profitable items are at the end of the aisles and also at eye level, and that the best buys can be found on the bottom row .... same in a casino, usually the back row of tables, or at least not the main corner aisle table.

Sun Tzu gives us 2 valuable lessons in The Art of War. One is in “the Nine Situations”, that if you manage to seize a favorable position, the amount of information that we choose to disclose should be limited ….. thus we cannot disclose on a public forum all we know on how to combat the biased dice that casinos are using because they would simply just make countermeasures.

Second, Sun Tzu tells us that:

Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster
The Gambler's Book Shop in Las Vegas motto is "knowledge is protection." At the store, they have a book by Steven L. Forte for $750.00 called “Casino Game Protection: A Comprehensive Guide” ….. you can also get it on Amazon from about $300. to $1,000.

As explained on this website, there are no technical dice specification laws in Nevada and Forte states in his aforementioned book on page 247:
Quote:
The bottom line: in jurisdictions without regulations that set forth an acceptable range of tolerances or standards, it can be difficult to state when a die is legally acceptable, or when it should be deemed a cheating device.
This vagueness in the Nevada dice laws allows the casinos to have an unfair game and increase the House edge as much as they desire --- just like they did when they started using 6:5 BlackJack to increase the House edge by over 800 percent (see http://www.blackjack-scams.com/html/6_5_blackjack.html )

.... many still think that is ridiculous !!

Sunday, October 26, 2014

What is New Jersey Gaming Enforcement trying to hide ...

New Jersey used to report Craps gaming revenues much better than Nevada ever has, until December, 2013. See Caesars Atlantic City craps Win % for October, 2013 at 36.1% according to their signed NJ tax return which can be found here: 
Link to Caesars Atlantic City October, 2013 Tax Return 
Caesars Atlantic City craps Win % for November, 2013 was at 27.2%.  Then (for all your conspiracy junkies), detailed Craps reporting by New Jersey disappeared in December, 2013.  See Link to New Jersey Tax Returns by Month by Casino

So why did New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement start hiding their Craps Winning percentage. In early 2013, we started publishing on the internet the expected returns for normal operating craps tables:

Best Selling Craps author Frank Scoblete posted on the Golden Touch Craps FaceBook page on February 5, 2013:

“Why would the casinos want to add to their already monumental edge at craps by using based dice? When you review the actually winnings at the craps tables, they come in at 16-20 percent of the money wagered. Why slaughter players even worse than this and then run the risk of these folks going into semi-retirement from the game or fleeing to casinos where they occasionally win? I just don't see the motivation behind cheating with biased dice. If I got the motivation to do something that is already being done, I might look into this. As it is, I see no reason for fixing a game that is already fixed.”
Did the corporate greed of Atlantic City Casinos lead to their own demise ?!

John Scarne on page 135 in his book Scarne on Dice states:
“…I have standardized a percentage that each bank craps table is expected to earn over a month’s period. This earned percentage is based on my study of daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly financial records of bank craps tables in a number of major casinos in Nevada and the Caribbean for over 25 years. The study of these reports shows that the expected earned percentage at Bank Craps over a month’s period amounts to about 20% of the gross amount of chips purchased.

… in the long run, the 20 percent figure is the approximate hold percentage of each and every craps table that is run honestly both from the inside and the outside.”

The UNLV Center for Gaming Research recently published a study by Dr. David G. Schwartz. Nevada Table Games: Historical Hold Variations, 2014:
The following table shows the average, maximum, and minimum monthly hold percentages for the period January 2004 through August 2014 for:
Craps Monthly Statewide Hold Percentages, 2004-2014

Average – 13.08

High – 17.56
Low – 8.03
Variation – 9.53
"Any monthly result that deviates significantly from … 13.06% (Craps) will impact monthly gaming revenues in a way that may distort the true level of play."
Craps Annual Statewide Hold Percentages, 1992-2013

Average – 12.96

High – 13.72
Low – 11.55
Variation – 2.17
Link to 2014 UNLV Study

We started posting all over the internet Dice boards that Atlantic City Tax Returns were showing the following extremely abnormal Win percentages for Craps in Casinos with suspected unbalanced dice – a very small sample was quickly gathered:
Tropicana, NJ Craps hold for Jan, 2012 was 70.03%
Resorts Casino, NJ craps Win % for Sept, 2012 was 24.1%
Tropicana, NJ Craps win percentage for April, 2012 was 39.0 % according to their NJ tax return signed by Jeff Bohrer, Casino Controller.
Harrah's Resort Atlantic City craps Win % for February, 2012 was 29.6 %

Caesars Atlantic City craps Win % for February, 2012 was 32.2 %
Beancounters are under pressure to make profits to cover increasing Debt service incurred in building Mega-resorts. Casinos are now run by corporations -- corporations are greedy --- No CEO is happy with 20% .... 20% will barely cover the suits salary, not their Christmas bonuses and other mega-resort perks.

The Bottom Line is if Caesars can double their monthly profits from 16% to 32%, which they did in February, 2012, that is an extra $2 million profit a month just from Craps. So why wouldn't greedy corporations use unbalanced dice to their advantage over most unsuspecting casual craps players.

FaceBook Link

Then we started getting reports that Caesars Atlantic City was using unbalanced dice more and more than just on occasional weekend shifts beginning with the 4th quarter of 2013 so we thought we would check their tax returns:

Caesars Atlantic City Craps Win % for: 
October, 2013 at 36.1 %

November, 2013 at 27.2 %

December, 2013 – NOT DISCLOSED

January, 2014, etc. – NOT DISCLOSED
Transparency is becoming non-existent. What is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and company trying to hide. Makes you wonder "don't rule out malice."

On October 24th, 2014 the Wizard of Vegas (Michael Shackleford) posted on his recently sold website wizardofvegas.com/forum:

“This has been said already, but if you are seeing over 40% of rolls land on seven, then I would track which kind of seven. I don't think dice could be shaved to cause an equal distribution of 4-3, 5-2, and 6-1 sevens. So, gather some data to determine which which sevens are the most frequent. Then just make a hop bets on that seven.

Even if the sevens are equally distributed at 13.33% probability each, the expected return on each of the 1-6, 2-5, and 3-4 hop bets, assuming a win of 15 to 1, would be 0.1333*15 + 0.8667*-1 = 1.1333. In other words, a player advantage of 113%.

When is the next flight?

Nah, I think I'll just stay here and play 8-5 Bonus Poker ... “

The Wizard's advise is great in theory, but lacks fundamentals of reality as the casinos know that most craps players ASSuME that the dice are fair and balanced and don’t even think twice about the probabilities of what is happening right in front of their eyes when a casino may use unbalanced or percentage dice for a shift.

… and then try to hide it by not disclosing the true tax return win percentages.


Link to Wizard of vegas.com/forum

Friday, July 11, 2014

Bonus Bets in the Wild, Wild, West ...

As we have discussed before, there are no craps laws or regulations in Las Vegas or Nevada so the Casino can make up or change at any time whatever craps rules they wish.  In fact, unlike most states where the Casino's license is owned by the taxpayers of the state and therefore a patron has the right to play as a resident or visitor of the state, this is not so in Nevada where the Casino has the right to refuse any bet.

And this is the case with the All, Tall, Small Bonus Craps Bets:


These are 3 separate proposition bets that first started at Sam's Town on Boulder Highway several years ago.  Then within the last few years these Bonus Bets spread like wild fire when Galaxy Gaming  http://www.galaxygaming.com/  purchased the rights and started marketing it across the United States.  You can get more information about these Bonus Bets from Procraps4u2 Link  or WizardofOdds.com Link

However, most casinos do not properly allow you to bet these Craps Bonus bets: 

1.  Sam's Town will no longer let anyone re-bet these 3 proposition bets on any roller once a Come-out 7 is thrown,
whereas the normal rules of the game allow you to re-bet EACH of these proposition bets ANYTIME after a 7 or after they are made.
Sam's Town only allows you to bet the All, Tall, Small proposition bets once per roller -- do they allow only 1 Hard 8 bet per roller ?? -- is Sam's Town still in the gambling business ??

2.  Most other casinos, except Downtown Grand Las Vegas Casino will not allow you to re-bet either Half after they are made until after the ALL bet is made or until the next shooter.  Both the SMALL bet and the TALL bet are independent proposition bets and once made should be able to be re-bet regardless if the ALL bet has been made or not.  However, most of the casinos argue that the 3 bets are NOT independent and can not be re-bet until the ALL bet is completed or a 7 is rolled.

3.  NYNY and Luxor in Las Vegas also violate the basic rules of this game as they do not pay off any of the 3 proposition bets until after the roller had completed his full roll and a 7-out instead of immediately after a decision is made on each of these independent bets.

Are NYNY and Luxor guilty of cheating as defined by the Nevada Gaming Regulations: 
NRS 465.015  Definitions.  As used in this chapter:
1.  “Cheat” means to alter the elements of chance, method of selection or criteria which determine:
(a) The result of a game;
(b) The amount or frequency of payment in a game;
What other bet made in Las Vegas makes you have to wait for maybe an hour (if a long roll) until after a decision before you get paid ?  Do they wait so long to pay you after a Hard 8 is made or any other Proposition bet ?

Watch this video closely to see how they Payoff the bet as soon as it made on just the Tall side  .... and they also allow you to rebet the Tall side before the Small side is made AND before the next roller (pay particular attention near minute 2:40 of the video).

How can so many casinos and so many professional dealers get it wrong 24/7 for so long ?!   This is not much different than how the casinos can wrongly use unbalanced dice for so long with so many dice experts and dealers not knowing they do.

Many of the dealers said they did not know how to mark that Half was already made.
Seriously ?!  All you have to do is turn the Lammers on that side over differently or mark it some other way -- these professionals have several little tricks of keeping track of unlabeled Hop bets and what's on the table and in your pocket.

.... As for Sam's Town, we just quit playing there -- it is not craps consumer friendly, especially since they do not use balanced dice most of the time .... but with the other casinos, I have had numerous conversations with dealers and Boxmen as well as conversations with Galaxy Gaming and finally a possible resolution:

On July 9th, Galaxy Gaming in Las Vegas had an internal meeting to discuss this problem of the Casinos not properly playing their bet and concluded the following:
  • Discussed the mathematician's study that re-betting either Half does not change or increase the House advantage,
  • To Discuss with each casino that re-betting either the SMALL bet or TALL bet after it is made (but before the ALL bet is completed) is no different than re-betting the Hard 8 after it is made so that they can give this option to their customers if they wish in Nevada,
  • Galaxy Gaming is to develop new Lammers (Markers) for each casino that will say something like "Small Side Qualified" or "Tall Side Qualified"  to make it dealer friendly.

As a consumer you have a choice where to spend your entertainment dollar .... and now you may want to ask before you buy-in what the House rules are on re-betting these proposition Bonus Bets .... as you have a choice to walk across the street or fly to a different state.

Friday, August 2, 2013

Green Valley Ranch using unbalanced dice ...

Green Valley Ranch Casino near Las Vegas seems to be using unbalanced dice based upon roll data collected there in July, 2013:

467 Rolls broken down as follows
2's = 15
3's = 33
4's = 55
5's = 44
6's = 60
8's = 67
9's = 33
10's = 41
11's = 24
12's = 22

The 7's broke down like this:
6/1 = 40
5/2 = 20
4/3 = 13 


The Chi^2 test on those rolls is in the warning range. p = 0.000092, including the 7 splits provided.

The data suggests that sample was not collected from fair dice.
According to dwheatley as posted on Wizard of Vegas website ...
wizardofvegas.com/

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Wizard admits de facto defeat ...

Someone posts on page 28 of the WizardofVegas.com
"... Caesar's is NOW using some of the worst reported biased dice... "
and the Wizard refuses to investigate or verify, instead he quits and falls very short of his self proclaimed Wizard of Odds and The Wizard of Vegas on his own thread that he commissioned Ahigh to start - Biased Dice: The science begins:
Wizard: "With that, I think I'm going to excuse myself from this thread. If somebody posts more numerical evidence, feel free to PM me with the URL of the post."
The Wizard has basically admitted de facto defeat or he is too lazy to do the work. Wiz refuses to test the odds of dice in Las Vegas. Someone posts "Caesar's is NOW using some of the worst reported biased dice" and the Wizard refuses to investigate or verify. Instead, the self-proclaimed Wizard of Odds runs probabilistic calculations of dice rolls from 1978 to form his conclusions for the state of affairs in Las Vegas some 35 years later.  Did the Wizard quit because he is not independent from the Las Vegas casinos ??

Furthermore, the Wizard's website advises that you should avoid Crapless Craps as a gimmick. He goes on to calculate the odds of Crapless Craps without even utilizing live data. He assumes they are using fair dice when in fact they are not too often. 
"Crapless Crapsfrom The Wizard of Odds

This following information graciously provided by the Wizard of Odds, the most recognized authority on casino gaming and table odds on the Net. The Wizard is a member of the Casino.com Hall of Fame, an adjunct professor of gaming math at The University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and makes his living consulting for land and Internet casinos and casino game developers.

Crapless Craps
by the Wizard of Odds

In my ten commandments of gambling I advise that you avoid gimmicks and this is an illustrated example. The Stratosphere Casino in Vegas and some casinos in Mississippi proudly boast of "crapless craps," a craps variant in which the player can not lose a pass bet on the come out roll."

It's a good thing Ahigh aka Aaron Hightower and 3 other players including The Bone Man did not follow the Wizard's advise 

and instead played the Crapless Craps as winners.  Here is their testimony of winning on Crapless Craps.  
Crapless Craps Story from
The Bone Man
 
One night while standing on a dead craps table, graveyard shift at the Stratosphere, Las Vegas, a customer came up and asked us if we could move over and open the Crapless Craps table. 
The boxman and night shift manager said sure, no problem, so the crew closed down the regulation table and opened up Crapless Craps. 
The player bought in for $500 and pretty soon at about 4:30 am other players started joining in on the action. 
The Player began his wagering by making $25 Pass Line and Come Bets and started off conservative. His streak began early and pretty soon he started pressing by placing maximum odds on his Pass Line and on all Come Bets. Pretty soon, with the help of some hot rolls, he had filled all the numbers - 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 and 12 taking maximum odds. 
By 7:30am or so he cashed out for $30,000.

Ahigh, an admitted career 5 digit loser on Craps, posts on May 14th, 2013 at 5:49 PM:
"FWIW I have been KILLING crapless craps. I have not had a SINGLE losing session on a crapless craps table yet! I don't roll much hi or lo, but I love getting paid on the ace-deuce odds!!!!"

You can conclude many things from these testimonials, but at the very least, you have to wonder if the Wizard of Odds calculations and advise for Crapless Craps is only theory and has nothing to do with the reality of Las Vegas dice.  Otherwise why would there be such a large discrepancy between what the Wizard advises and what is happening in reality ??

As has been noted several times, certain Biased dice will give you more craps numbers than fair dice.  This gives you an opportunity to take advantage of this on Crapless Craps tables.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Is the Wizard of Vegas Fair and Balanced ...

Instead of answering the question, the Wizard of Vegas banned me for asking the question:

Quote: Ahigh
The members of this forum are as obsessive over what should be free bets IN THEORY with perfect dice as other forums are about how you throw the dice to be fair to the two opposing camps on the game of craps.

All this does is demonstrate that the bets are not free for any distribution except perfectly flat. Perfectly flat distributions generally don't exist anywhere except in theory.

The challenge is to record outcomes for a stick of dice in a real casino, download the spreadsheet, and see what the edges are in reality of the real world instead of mocking people who believe things that are not compatible with your personal belief system.
...


AMEN .... I believe the Wizard has dropped the ball in his own back yard on this issue 

Quote: Copyright © 2009-2013 Michael Shackleford

Blacklist Rules

My blacklist is a place for the most unethical of Internet casinos. Reasons for inclusion on the blacklist include:

Game results are not consistent with a random game.

I expect all casinos to offer a fair game as evidenced by the fact that the cards or dice observed fall in line with statistical norms. ...


- Who did the observation of Las Vegas casino dice ??!
- Does the Wizard give the Las Vegas casinos a pass since he is on their payroll ??!
- Is this why he only goes after online casinos ??!!

... or was it just a big assumption .... we know what happens when we assume something .....

http://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/blacklist/index.php

Link to Wizard of Vegas Discussion Forum on Biased Dice...