Sunday, October 26, 2014

What is New Jersey Gaming Enforcement trying to hide ...

New Jersey used to report Craps gaming revenues much better than Nevada ever has, until December, 2013. See Caesars Atlantic City craps Win % for October, 2013 at 36.1% according to their signed NJ tax return which can be found here: 
Link to Caesars Atlantic City October, 2013 Tax Return 
Caesars Atlantic City craps Win % for November, 2013 was at 27.2%Then (for all your conspiracy junkies), detailed Craps reporting by New Jersey disappeared in December, 2013.  See Link to New Jersey Tax Returns by Month by Casino

So why did New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement start hiding their Craps Winning percentage. In early 2013, we started publishing on the internet the expected returns for normal operating craps tables:

Best Selling Craps author Frank Scoblete posted on the Golden Touch Craps FaceBook page on February 5, 2013:

“Why would the casinos want to add to their already monumental edge at craps by using based dice? When you review the actually winnings at the craps tables, they come in at 16-20 percent of the money wagered. Why slaughter players even worse than this and then run the risk of these folks going into semi-retirement from the game or fleeing to casinos where they occasionally win? I just don't see the motivation behind cheating with biased dice. If I got the motivation to do something that is already being done, I might look into this. As it is, I see no reason for fixing a game that is already fixed.”
Did the corporate greed of Atlantic City Casinos lead to their own demise ?!

John Scarne on page 135 in his book Scarne on Dice states:
“…I have standardized a percentage that each bank craps table is expected to earn over a month’s period. This earned percentage is based on my study of daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly financial records of bank craps tables in a number of major casinos in Nevada and the Caribbean for over 25 years. The study of these reports shows that the expected earned percentage at Bank Craps over a month’s period amounts to about 20% of the gross amount of chips purchased.

… in the long run, the 20 percent figure is the approximate hold percentage of each and every craps table that is run honestly both from the inside and the outside.

The UNLV Center for Gaming Research recently published a study by Dr. David G. Schwartz. Nevada Table Games: Historical Hold Variations, 2014:
The following table shows the average, maximum, and minimum monthly hold percentages for the period January 2004 through August 2014 for:
Craps Monthly Statewide Hold Percentages, 2004-2014

Average – 13.08

High – 17.56
Low – 8.03
Variation – 9.53
"Any monthly result that deviates significantly from … 13.06% (Craps) will impact monthly gaming revenues in a way that may distort the true level of play."
Craps Annual Statewide Hold Percentages, 1992-2013

Average – 12.96

High – 13.72
Low – 11.55
Variation – 2.17
Link to 2014 UNLV Study

We started posting all over the internet Dice boards that Atlantic City Tax Returns were showing the following extremely abnormal Win percentages for Craps in Casinos with suspected unbalanced dice – a very small sample was quickly gathered:
Tropicana, NJ Craps hold for Jan, 2012 was 70.03%
Resorts Casino, NJ craps Win % for Sept, 2012 was 24.1%
Tropicana, NJ Craps win percentage for April, 2012 was 39.0 % according to their NJ tax return signed by Jeff Bohrer, Casino Controller.
Harrah's Resort Atlantic City craps Win % for February, 2012 was 29.6 %

Caesars Atlantic City craps Win % for February, 2012 was 32.2 %
Beancounters are under pressure to make profits to cover increasing Debt service incurred in building Mega-resorts. Casinos are now run by corporations -- corporations are greedy --- No CEO is happy with 20% .... 20% will barely cover the suits salary, not their Christmas bonuses and other mega-resort perks.

The Bottom Line is if Caesars can double their monthly profits from 16% to 32%, which they did in February, 2012, that is an extra $2 million profit a month just from Craps. So why wouldn't greedy corporations use unbalanced dice to their advantage over most unsuspecting casual craps players.

FaceBook Link

Then we started getting reports that Caesars Atlantic City was using unbalanced dice more and more than just on occasional weekend shifts beginning with the 4th quarter of 2013 so we thought we would check their tax returns:

Caesars Atlantic City Craps Win % for: 
October, 2013 at 36.1 %

November, 2013 at 27.2 %

December, 2013 – NOT DISCLOSED

January, 2014, etc. – NOT DISCLOSED
Transparency is becoming non-existent. What is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and company trying to hide. Makes you wonder "don't rule out malice."

On October 24th, 2014 the Wizard of Vegas (Michael Shackleford) posted on his recently sold website

“This has been said already, but if you are seeing over 40% of rolls land on seven, then I would track which kind of seven. I don't think dice could be shaved to cause an equal distribution of 4-3, 5-2, and 6-1 sevens. So, gather some data to determine which which sevens are the most frequent. Then just make a hop bets on that seven.

Even if the sevens are equally distributed at 13.33% probability each, the expected return on each of the 1-6, 2-5, and 3-4 hop bets, assuming a win of 15 to 1, would be 0.1333*15 + 0.8667*-1 = 1.1333. In other words, a player advantage of 113%.

When is the next flight?

Nah, I think I'll just stay here and play 8-5 Bonus Poker ... “

The Wizard's advise is great in theory, but lacks fundamentals of reality as the casinos know that most craps players ASSuME that the dice are fair and balanced and don’t even think twice about the probabilities of what is happening right in front of their eyes when a casino may use unbalanced or percentage dice for a shift.

… and then try to hide it by not disclosing the true tax return win percentages.

Link to Wizard of

1 comment:

  1. UNLV maintains casino corporate archives. That's a good college for that work.