Thursday, May 16, 2013

Wizard admits de facto defeat ...

Someone posts on page 28 of the
"... Caesar's is NOW using some of the worst reported biased dice... "
and the Wizard refuses to investigate or verify, instead he quits and falls very short of his self proclaimed Wizard of Odds and The Wizard of Vegas on his own thread that he commissioned Ahigh to start - Biased Dice: The science begins:
Wizard: "With that, I think I'm going to excuse myself from this thread. If somebody posts more numerical evidence, feel free to PM me with the URL of the post."
The Wizard has basically admitted de facto defeat or he is too lazy to do the work. Wiz refuses to test the odds of dice in Las Vegas. Someone posts "Caesar's is NOW using some of the worst reported biased dice" and the Wizard refuses to investigate or verify. Instead, the self-proclaimed Wizard of Odds runs probabilistic calculations of dice rolls from 1978 to form his conclusions for the state of affairs in Las Vegas some 35 years later.  Did the Wizard quit because he is not independent from the Las Vegas casinos ??

Furthermore, the Wizard's website advises that you should avoid Crapless Craps as a gimmick. He goes on to calculate the odds of Crapless Craps without even utilizing live data. He assumes they are using fair dice when in fact they are not too often. 
"Crapless Crapsfrom The Wizard of Odds

This following information graciously provided by the Wizard of Odds, the most recognized authority on casino gaming and table odds on the Net. The Wizard is a member of the Hall of Fame, an adjunct professor of gaming math at The University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and makes his living consulting for land and Internet casinos and casino game developers.

Crapless Craps
by the Wizard of Odds

In my ten commandments of gambling I advise that you avoid gimmicks and this is an illustrated example. The Stratosphere Casino in Vegas and some casinos in Mississippi proudly boast of "crapless craps," a craps variant in which the player can not lose a pass bet on the come out roll."

It's a good thing Ahigh aka Aaron Hightower and 3 other players including The Bone Man did not follow the Wizard's advise 

and instead played the Crapless Craps as winners.  Here is their testimony of winning on Crapless Craps.  
Crapless Craps Story from
The Bone Man
One night while standing on a dead craps table, graveyard shift at the Stratosphere, Las Vegas, a customer came up and asked us if we could move over and open the Crapless Craps table. 
The boxman and night shift manager said sure, no problem, so the crew closed down the regulation table and opened up Crapless Craps. 
The player bought in for $500 and pretty soon at about 4:30 am other players started joining in on the action. 
The Player began his wagering by making $25 Pass Line and Come Bets and started off conservative. His streak began early and pretty soon he started pressing by placing maximum odds on his Pass Line and on all Come Bets. Pretty soon, with the help of some hot rolls, he had filled all the numbers - 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 and 12 taking maximum odds. 
By 7:30am or so he cashed out for $30,000.

Ahigh, an admitted career 5 digit loser on Craps, posts on May 14th, 2013 at 5:49 PM:
"FWIW I have been KILLING crapless craps. I have not had a SINGLE losing session on a crapless craps table yet! I don't roll much hi or lo, but I love getting paid on the ace-deuce odds!!!!"

You can conclude many things from these testimonials, but at the very least, you have to wonder if the Wizard of Odds calculations and advise for Crapless Craps is only theory and has nothing to do with the reality of Las Vegas dice.  Otherwise why would there be such a large discrepancy between what the Wizard advises and what is happening in reality ??

As has been noted several times, certain Biased dice will give you more craps numbers than fair dice.  This gives you an opportunity to take advantage of this on Crapless Craps tables.

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