Thursday, March 18, 2010

Lo$$ Limits ....

Money Management ....
In his book "John Patrick's Craps", Patrick talks about Bankroll in Chapter 3 (page 24) and says you should set your Loss Limit at 50% of whatever you bring into the casino .... and here is another theory:

Intelligently managing your bankroll should be a key fundamental in any craps strategy, because it is the only way of knowing if your plan is working. A good method, but one that many find hard to follow, is to set a loss limit and to adhere to it. Often a player will sit down at the craps table, bankrolling himself a hundred dollars. However, as often happens, the player begins a losing streak, and the money is lost quickly, and the player is tempted to increase his bankroll. On the other hand, it is just as difficult to set a maximum limits for wins, because if you are winning, why leave?

Another method to managing your bankroll can be done by playing only with your winning. For example, say you bankroll yourself one hundred dollars for a game of craps. This should also be your loss limit. Begin playing, and should you lose, follow your loss limit and walk away. If you win initially, then wait until you have $75-$100 over your initial bankroll, and the put that money aside. In this way, in case you should lose all your winning, then you will still have your original bankroll. If you continue winning, then put another hundred dollars aside and exclude it permanently from the game.
The Gambler’s Fallacy

Many gamblers believe that they are “due for a win” after a streak of losses. When such players lose a few bets in a row, they often increase their bet dramatically, expecting a win. This expectation is called the gambler’s fallacy.

Unfortunately, losing a few bets or even many bets in a row does not affect the odds of winning the next bet. So even if you’ve lost a few bets running, you shouldn’t bet more than what you had planned. Chasing your losses with big bets is a sure way to the poor house....

... and although there are probably 1001 theories on Loss Limits and betting strategies, I tend to favor the following:

- Never bet more than 10% of your bankroll for any 1 roll ... and

- Loss Limit set at 25% of my bankroll per casino (50% for the day)

.... what are your favorite Lo$$ Limit guidelines that help you survive the roll of the dice ??

here is another interesting opinion on Lo$$ Limits by a well known Advantage Black Jack player that is admittedly new to craps, when commenting on DeadCat’s strategy:


Jan 17, 2010, 4:52pm, lvbear wrote:
DeadCat wrote:

I don't play with "win goals" and "loss limits" anymore. I haven't for some time. That's gambler's thinking. If conditions are right and my shooting is good, I'll play until they aren't. If no positive-expectation opportunity presents itself, I won't play. This makes a doubling timeline tricky but I am trying to do with craps what is acceptable for BJ professionals. I see this as a linchpin in bringing DI fully into the AP realm. Somebody needs to do it.

Congratulations on leaving voodoo behind. Eliminating such superstitions as "win goals" and "loss limits." which appear to an "outsider" to be so pervasive in the craps world, is a major step. Focusing on long-term results, rather than individual sessions, is so important. Individual session results are meaningless.

Opinions and Commentary on the Gaming Industry:

now I have an opinion that is completely opposite of DeadCat's & LVBear's .... but that is ok --- to each his own, there is no right or wrong .... but I still tend to agree with the John Patrick's of the world than DeadCat ..... I have a finance and accounting background & I learned that most successful business plans include budgets with goals ..... I don't consider budgets guidelines as "voodoo" or "superstitions"

Re: Lo$$ Limits ....
Post by tinhorngambler on Jan 20, 2010, 9:10pm

I agree with your comments.

Without a doubt, Advantage BJ and Advantage Craps are two different animals.

The Advantage BJ player bets big when the cards favor the player and it makes sense.
They bet minimal the rest of the time.

The Advantage Craps player has the advantage all the time …. because his or her SRR is greater then 7.
Baloney !

Your SRR may be the best thing since sliced bread.
That is until you get your ass-kicked and your bankroll takes a beating.
Even if you have a good hand or two.
There has to be goals or a plan …. or you will give back every penny and then some.
Staying in peak performance and on top of the game is not a given.

Playing with No Goals, Unrealistic goals, Shooting for the moon, playing the extremes, relying on luck, superstition, or … you name it …. it all sucks.

Because I keep hearing the same stories about … jess … I learned a lot, I had a great time, met a lot of good folks, but I lost money.

Can I offer my sympathies to my brethren who keep getting their ass-kicked.

Excuses, excuses, and the coulda, woulda, and shoulda, doesn‘t cut-it … Maybe once or twice you can get away with it, but it’s a BAD HABIT. And the sooner you sincerely take the bull by the horns and learn …. you will keep making the same dumb mistakes.

Unless you are able to capitalize on your play and keep the money … WHY are you following the same line of play.

In fact we’ve lost a lot of good players through the years because they forgot the basic’s, whether you call it Goals, Plan , or any other thing. Stop and think !

You will run into those days of HELL and HIGH WATER and that doesn’t have to mean you should ignore a disastrous situation, because you’re good.

When you have no Win & Loss Goals or an Abandonment Plan … Please pick up a casino envelope and mail your money in.

Because you’ll be just another name that had high hopes and a dream.

Re: Lo$$ Limits ....
Post by The Lion on Jan 21, 2010, 11:27am

I'm sure you guys have a few better $$ mgt plans, but in the old days (you know, the decades before DI became a contact sport), I used a simple method that locked up profit.

"Top and bottom rails. "

Buy in, put half the money in the top rail and half in the bottom rail. All bets come out of the top rail. All incoming went into the bottom rail.

Next round ("round" = top rail is empty from betting), I pulled the buy-in from the bottom rail, or half the rail, whichever is greater, and squirreled it away. The remaining ammo went to the top rail to fire downrange.

Next round, I pulled half the stack from the bottom rail and put it in the top rail to continue play, the rest got pocketed. And so on.

When the game turned bad ("bad" = the top rail got eaten up and the bottom rail did not grow), I tossed the change to the boys, and split. My pockets had my buy in, and my profit. And since I split my buy in, half on each rail, IF I NEVER pocketed any winnings and my top rail got eaten alive right away, I still had half my buy in. Some guys varied that from 30-50% on the top rail.

This was how I played before DI, and it worked. And it wasn't my idea -- it was the best that I read about, and I tried them all back then. This method of money management has a built in loss-limit and also a built in blue sky! How high is up?

Re: Lo$$ Limits ....
Post by dicenator on Jan 22, 2010, 5:55am

I do something very similar. Say my buy in is $300, I'll have 8 green chips and 20 reds. They are all placed in the front rack. Anything that I win goes to the back rack. When my back rack gets up to $75 in red chips, I replace 5 reds for 1 green in the front rack. The one green goes into my pocket. I continue doing this while occasionally changing a green into 5 reds. My ultimate goal is to get 12 green chips in my pocket so that covers my buy in. Anthing left in the chip rack is profit. Hopefully I'm subtle enough that they don't know how much I've won or are only seeing a small portion of my winnings.

1 comment:

  1. Good book with out loss limits, we lose you have to know when to walk away if you are losing, so you can play again....