Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Casino Hold on Craps in Vegas ...

The Nevada Gaming Commission will not disclose the hold on craps by casino like New Jersey does.  When asked why not, they say that would not be fair to the casinos privacy.  LoL -- Not Fair are the key words sadly.   Casino consultant Bill Zender tells us in his book "Casino-ology 2 - New Strategies for Managing Casino Games" why we should worry about the craps hold (win percentage):

Let's don't forget how this analysis compares to our previously reported stats:
From the Casino News By Cy Ryan (Carson City, NV):

Casino win on Strip declines 8th straight month (October 12, 2008)

“For the eighth consecutive month, winnings at Strip casinos declined. ... The positive signs were in craps with winnings increased by 59.4 percent ..."
The casinos do not have to alter the dice too much or all the time to get a few extra big bucks ..... just 1% additional per month is approximately $2.4 million per month.

Nevada reports the Win Percentage on Craps (Hold) for the whole month for the whole state ---- the Biased Dice are not used all the time at every casino, but only at times that their assets are at most risk or whenever they need more profit margin.

You can find a summary of Nevada Gaming Revenue Reports at http://gaming.nv.gov/gaming_revenue_rpt.htm

Let's compare Nov. 08 to Nov. 06 (page 4 for the entire state - about 395 tables)
Nov. 08 profit take is 14.51% vs. 13.19% in Nov. 06 .... or about 1.32% more with the Biased Dice
If the "Win Amount" was $34.3 million, then the Gross amount gambled on craps was about $236,485,000.00.

$236.485 million x 1.32% = $3.1 million additional profit in 1 month from using Biased Dice (compared to fair dice used more often 2 years ago).

Remember these are figures for a whole month for the whole state which gives you a very averaged profit ...... We contend that various Las Vegas casinos are systematically using Biased dice to influence the outcome of a random game. These dice are mostly used every weekend, holidays and especially when marketing promotions have targeted high rollers into the casino.

Let's look at individual tables instead of the whole state average.  Looking at Carson Valley Area (page 7) they have the data for 5 tables in Nov. 2008 and let's compare it to the same in Nov. 2006 for 6 tables .... the Win Percentage is as follows:
2008 - 30.48%  
2006 - 14.73%
That variance fits right into John Scarne's theory (hold on craps should be between 12-18% and NOT higher than 18% as noted in his book, "Scarne On Dice"which would make sense since we have found more of the smaller casinos that either do not have full-time large corporation-type staff to manage the dice on crap's tables or just enjoy the larger profit % and will employ the Biased Dice now more often than just on weekends or holidays.

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